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  • The Iowa Caucuses Are In 17 Days. What’s Going On In The Early States? January 17, 2020
    Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week Throughout the primary, we’ve been tracking polls in the four early states to better understand how the race differs in each of them, as each state tells its own story about how the 2020 Democratic primary could shake out. For instance, Iowa is a […]
  • Trump May Be Even More Unpopular Than His Approval Rating Shows January 17, 2020
    Polls have consistently shown that President Trump is pretty unpopular, with only about 42 percent of the American public approving of the job he is doing as president. These numbers are much lower than what one might expect given the bustling economy. But does the standard presidential approval question actually capture what voters think of […]
  • What The Sanders vs. Warren Battle Is Really About January 16, 2020
    Sen. Elizabeth Warren played to a friendly crowd when she visited Brooklyn last week. The rally at King’s Theatre on Flatbush Avenue — an ornate people’s palace kind of joint with fleur de lis in the molding and vaudeville ghosts in the rafters — was a 4,800-person shot in the arm for her campaign, which […]
  • Election Update: Why Warren Needs To Play To Win — And That Includes Beating Sanders January 16, 2020
    We’ve officially entered silly season in the Democratic primary, which means we’re at the point where you can get pretty far by just stating the obvious. So here are a few rather obvious truths about the Democratic primary: Only one candidate can be nominated. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, two of the more likely people […]
  • How The Modern Primary System Has Shaped Our Politics January 16, 2020
    The way we choose our presidential candidates in the United States is unique among the world’s democracies. In other countries, party leadership often plays a much bigger role in choosing candidates. As we discussed in the first installment of The Primaries Project, the parties initially held a lot of power in nominating processes, but everything […]
  • Do Parties Or Voters Choose Presidential Nominees? January 16, 2020
    Who really picks our presidential nominees? Sure, most Americans have a chance to go to the polls and vote for their favorite candidate in a primary or caucus. But when it comes down to it, are party elites really pulling the strings? In this episode of The Primaries Project, we look at historical elections to […]
  • The January Democratic Debate In 6 Charts January 15, 2020
    We’re less than three weeks away from the Iowa caucuses, and the Democrats held their first presidential debate of 2020 on Tuesday night in Iowa. Just six candidates took the stage this time, the smallest grouping yet. Much of the debate centered on foreign policy, given President Trump’s recent decision to authorize a drone strike […]
  • Buckets, Satellites, Robots And More — How We Measure The Earth’s Average Temperature January 15, 2020
    This summer, we asked readers to send us their climate change questions. And they did. We received many, many, many climate change questions. So many, in fact, that we’re doing several different projects around them. You’ve seen our columns on Who’s Winning Climate Change? Today, we’re diving into the mailbag for another edition of Climate […]
  • Politics Podcast: The Candidates Took On Electability In Their Final Pre-Iowa Debate January 15, 2020
    In a late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew reacts to the final Democratic primary debate before the Iowa caucuses. The candidates spent time debating foreign policy and whether a woman can beat President Trump in the 2020 presidential election. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the […]
  • Did Tuesday Night’s Democratic Debate Do Anything To Break The Logjam In Iowa? January 15, 2020
    Welcome to a special, post-debate edition of FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Just six candidates made the debate stage on Tuesday night, and with less than three weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses, this was the last time voters will see these candidates […]

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