RSS Five Thirty Eight (Politics)

  • Is Our Primary System Democratic? January 24, 2020
    Back in the 1970s, we changed how we choose presidential nominees. Those changes supposedly made our primary system more democratic by allowing voters to cast a ballot in a primary or caucus rather than having party leaders pick a candidate. But there is more to a well-functioning democracy than just being able to vote. In […]
  • What The Latest Polling On Trump’s Removal Does (And Doesn’t) Mean January 24, 2020
    Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week It was a historic week in the U.S. Senate, as the impeachment trial of President Trump got underway. We got opening arguments, fights over decorum, dealmaking and more. We also got a bunch of new polls measuring how Americans felt about all this, and […]
  • There Has To Be A Better Way To Pick Presidential Nominees … Right? January 23, 2020
    Not all democracies are the same. Sure, the bedrock principle — governing according to the will of the people — is consistent, but there are lots of structural decisions that influence who “the people” are and how their diverse wishes are tallied. Those decisions have consequences, influencing who runs for office, how they campaign and […]
  • Election Update: What Are The Chances Of A Brokered Convention? January 23, 2020
    A brokered convention is not a likely occurrence, exactly. But it’s not unlikely, either. It’s roughly as likely as the Tennessee Titans beating the Baltimore Ravens earlier this month, or Donald Trump winning the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote. According to the FiveThirtyEight primary model, there’s a 15 percent chance that no Democrat […]
  • How The Democratic Candidates’ Popularity Has Changed Over A Year Of Campaigning January 23, 2020
    Graphics by Sakshi Jain Once more, with feeling: People are a lot more apt to change their mind in primaries than in general elections. That’s because, when all the candidates in the race are members of the same party, voters often like several of them, and the 2020 presidential primary is no exception. High favorability […]
  • Republican Voters Increasingly Back The GOP’s Move To Block Impeachment Witnesses January 23, 2020
    On Tuesday, the impeachment trial of President Trump featured hours of acrimonious debate over whether witnesses should be called and what a fair process would look like. Now, as the House impeachment managers begin to present their case against Trump, the latest iteration of our survey with Ipsos, where we use Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to poll […]
  • Election Update: It’s Cherry-Picking Season January 22, 2020
    As of our most recent Election Update this weekend, I noted that polls since last week’s debate had been — this is a scientific term — “pretty weird.” Well, it’s time to revise that statement. There have been a whole bunch of new polls over the past couple of days. And they’ve been not just […]
  • Politics Podcast: How Senators Are Making Their Political Calculations In The Impeachment Trial January 22, 2020
    President Trump’s impeachment trial is underway, and the political strategies of both Democrats and Republicans are on clear display. In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Perry Bacon Jr. and Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux discuss those strategies and whether any senators will cross party lines in the final vote. You can listen to the episode by […]
  • What Went Down During Rep. Adam Schiff’s Opening Arguments In The Senate Impeachment Trial January 22, 2020
  • Why People Keep Asking Elizabeth Warren Whether She Can Win January 22, 2020
    At a campaign event in southeastern Iowa in December, a graduate student named Charlotte Moser was waiting to ask Sen. Elizabeth Warren a question. As we sat and talked in a crowded union hall before the event began, Charlotte told me she felt a little guilty that it wasn’t about Warren’s plans or policies. But […]

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