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  • Millennials Are Leaving Religion And Not Coming Back December 12, 2019
    Millennials have earned a reputation for reshaping industries and institutions — shaking up the workplace, transforming dating culture, and rethinking parenthood. They’ve also had a dramatic impact on American religious life. Four in ten millennials now say they are religiously unaffiliated, according to the Pew Research Center. In fact, millennials (those between the ages of […]
  • Seven Candidates Have Qualified For The December Democratic Debate December 12, 2019
    The crowded Democratic presidential candidate field has defined much of the 2020 election cycle, including the size of the primary debates, with the October debate featuring a historic 12 candidates on a single stage. In fact, up to this point, no debate has had fewer than 10 participants. But that looks likely to change today […]
  • Which Senators Are Likely To Vote For Trump’s Removal? December 11, 2019
    On Tuesday, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats announced two articles of impeachment against President Trump: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Soon, the U.S. House will almost certainly vote to pass those two articles. And then things move to the U.S. Senate, where things seem just as inevitable: The GOP-led Senate will […]
  • Why It’s Tougher To Qualify For The December Democratic Debate December 11, 2019
    Throughout 2019, there have been a number of complaints that the Democratic National Committee’s thresholds for debate qualification are either too difficult — or too easy. And looking ahead to the Dec. 19 debate, these thresholds might exact their worst toll yet. There are three candidates unlikely to make the cut: Sen. Cory Booker, former […]
  • What Iowa Voters’ Second-Choice Picks Can Tell Us December 11, 2019
    Polling in presidential primary campaigns is notoriously fluid. In an effort to gauge movement among voters as they might change their mind and as candidates pop in and out of the race, pollsters will often ask voters about both their first-choice candidate and their backup. This question has been particularly popular this cycle, given how […]
  • How The Televised Hearings Have Moved Public Opinion On Impeachment December 10, 2019
    In November, Democrats and Republicans questioned witnesses in the first five public hearings on impeachment. Did the week of televised testimony move public opinion? FiveThirtyEight partnered with Ipsos to conduct a survey using the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. We first checked in with the panel as the public hearings were getting underway. Here’s what those same Americans […]
  • The 2010s Were A Complicated Decade For Democrats And White Voters December 10, 2019
    There’s an aphorism I like, that we are entirely new people from one day to the next, let alone a year or a decade. Whether, say, a novelist writes their critical scene on Tuesday or Wednesday could make a world of difference. Our minds change by absorbing images and things people say. We float back […]
  • Where Americans Stand On The Democrats’ Impeachment Charges December 10, 2019
    After months of investigation and public testimony, the impeachment train has officially left the station. On Tuesday, Democrats introduced two articles of impeachment against President Trump: abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. And the House Judiciary Committee is now expected to vote on the charges against Trump later this week. It’s clear from the […]
  • Why Aren’t More Women Breaking Out In The Democratic Primary? December 10, 2019
    Six months can make a big difference in a presidential race — even if no actual votes have been cast. Back in June, when the primary was still getting off the ground, there were six women in the first Democratic debate, including four senators who all seemed like promising contenders for the nomination. Now, as […]
  • Politics Podcast: The Democratic Primary, According To The Early States December 9, 2019
    In this installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, the crew previews the official FiveThirtyEight polling averages for the 2020 Democratic primary, including how the race looks nationally and in the early states. Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders have both been incredibly steady in the polls, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Pete […]

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