RSS Five Thirty Eight (Politics)

  • Is California Failing Its Most Vulnerable Adults? December 11, 2018
    As she waited for her meal during a routine trip to a fast-food restaurant in Northern California’s Bay Area in July of last year, a woman with a developmental disability was lured away from her adult day care group. The staffer overseeing the group ordered food, but it wasn’t until after he ordered that he […]
  • Have Republicans Given Up On Winning Black Voters? December 11, 2018
    George W. Bush was president when I first started covering national politics. He had come into office with barely any support from black voters. He won re-election with almost as little. But Bush still paid some heed to the interests of black Americans. When then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott praised the pro-segregation 1948 presidential campaign […]
  • Politics Podcast: Trump’s Turbulent Week December 10, 2018
    The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew tries to make sense of the recent turbulence in Trump world, including possible campaign finance violations and another staffing shake-up. The team also checks back in on potential election fraud in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio […]
  • Why It Might Be Impossible To Overturn A Presidential Pardon December 10, 2018
    If the American president has a superpower, it might be the ability to grant pardons. With the stroke of a pen, the president can wipe away the consequences of a federal criminal conviction, without having to ask permission from Congress or prepare for a battle in the courts. In the past, presidents have used this […]
  • Trump Is Only Popular In Rural Areas December 7, 2018
    Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week The 2018 midterm election confirmed America’s urban-rural divide; Democrats excelled in cities, Republicans dominated in the country and the suburbs were the tiebreaker that handed Democrats the House. Will the 2020 election play out the same way? This week, we got two polls of […]
  • Crossing The Aisle Didn’t Save Republicans This Year December 7, 2018
    Over the years, members of Congress who broke ranks with their party have tended to find more electoral success — in other words, it can pay to be a maverick. But in 2018, this wasn’t necssarily the case. Many Republicans who were less loyal to their party lost their re-election bids in this year’s midterms. […]
  • Trump Has Made U.S. Policy Much More Resistant To Immigration — Without The Wall December 6, 2018
    President Trump and congressional Democrats are fighting over how much the U.S. government should spend on Trump’s proposed border wall, risking another government shutdown because of a dispute over immigration policy. However those negotiations turn out, though, here’s the thing: The massive wall, which Trump has said would stretch 1,000 miles across the U.S.-Mexico border, […]
  • How Much Was Incumbency Worth In 2018? December 6, 2018
    For decades, running as an incumbent was undoubtedly a huge advantage in electoral politics. As recently as 20 years ago, holding office added an average of 8 percentage points to a candidate’s margin. But in this century, experts say, the incumbency advantage has significantly diminished. Now the verdict is in for the 2018 election: According […]
  • What If We Already Have The Mueller Report? December 5, 2018
    UPDATE (Dec. 7, 2018, 6:13 p.m.): Late Friday afternoon, prosecutors from the Southern District of New York filed a sentencing memo for Michael Cohen, President Trump’s former lawyer and “fixer,” recommending a “substantial” prison term of about four years, despite his cooperation with special counsel Robert Mueller. In a separate memo submitted last week, Cohen’s […]
  • Are Lame-Duck Sessions Undemocratic? December 4, 2018
    Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Today we’ve assembled a larger-than-usual crew to figure out just what is happening in Wisconsin and Michigan. In both states, lame-duck Republican state legislatures are trying to pass a number of bills that will limit the power […]

RSS Real Clear Politics

  • Republicans, Don't Break Our Democracy December 11, 2018
    Tom Perez, CNNDemocrats won big in this year's midterm elections. We put hope on the ballot and voters across the country embraced our message, turning out in droves to elect the most diverse slate of candidates in history. It was a powerful repudiation of Donald Trump and the Republican politicians who march in lockstep behind […]
  • Build the Wall--Do What We Said We'd Do December 11, 2018
    Reps. Jordan & Meadows, FOX NewsWe have three weeks to help him deliver on his biggest promise: securing the border and building the wall.
  • Why Democrats Need Nancy Pelosi as Speaker December 11, 2018
    Jill Lawrence, USA TodayEverything that happens next year in the House amounts to a Democratic audition — and platform — for the 2020 presidential, Senate and House elections.
  • McConnell's Making a Big Mistake by Refusing to Let 1st Step Pass December 11, 2018
  • What's Next, Mrs. May? December 11, 2018
  • The Net Closes on Donald Trump December 11, 2018
  • Campaign Finance Case Against Trump Is Laughably Weak December 11, 2018
  • Will the Leakers in the Flynn Case Escape Justice? December 11, 2018
    Julie Kelly, American GreatnessTwo years ago this month, the set-up of Lt. General Michael Flynn began. And now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller has recommended the lightest sentence possible for Flynn’s crime of lying to the FBI in 2017, Americans are reminded that the real criminals—top officials at our nation’s most trusted agencies—have yet to […]
  • What Has the President Been 'Smocking'? December 11, 2018
    Eugene Robinson, Washington PostPresident Trump was up early Monday morning, tweeting falsely that investigators have found "No Smocking Gun" that proves he did anything wrong. He meant "smoking," of course. His vision must be clouded by the haze.
  • From Russia, Russia, Russia to...Campaign Finance? December 11, 2018
    Byron York, Washington ExaminerBut despite various revelations in the Russia probe, the case for collusion remains as sketchy as ever.
  • Trump's 'Obama Did It Too' Defense Does Not Hold Water December 11, 2018
    Richard Hasen, SlatePresident Donald Trump may never face a criminal penalty or impeachment proceedings for violating campaign finance laws in alleged conspiracy with his former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.
  • Why Trump Might Be Right About Interest Rates December 11, 2018
    Peter Eavis, New York TimesWhat if President Trump’s gut turns out to have been right and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases are holding back the United States economy?
  • How Theresa May Blew It December 11, 2018
    Rich Lowry, New York PostShakespeare famously wrote of the “sceptered isle” of Britain acting as a moat “against the envy of less happier lands.” Lately, the less happier lands are winning in a rout.
  • Protests Show Leading France Is an Impossible Job December 11, 2018
    Gideon Rachman, Financial TimesThe French contradiction of a demand for lower taxes and better public services will stay unresolved
  • What the New Congress Can Learn From Aristotle December 11, 2018
    Peter Berkowitz, RealClearPoliticsThe swearing in of the 116th Congress next month returns divided government to Washington. A Democratic-controlled House coupled with a fortified Republican Senate majority is likely to exacerbate the rancor and vitriol that have suffused national politics since long before Donald Trump’s theatrical announcement in the summer of 2015 that he was running […]


August 3, 2018 0

“The U.S. Needs a Russia Strategy Now More Than Ever” by Michael McFaul

By celmoreblog

“In the face of a growing Russian threat to the interests of the United States at home and around the globe, Washington still lacks anything resembling a grand strategy to meet it. Trump’s Helsinki performance showed the world that a year and a half into his administration, he has yet even to start crafting an approach. “

August 1, 2018 0

The Minority Majority: America’s Electoral System Advantages Republicans

By celmoreblog

“There is a reason why, when choosing their own constitutions, no other country has for long survived with a replica of the American model—and why when guiding the design of constitutions for others, as they did in post-war Germany and Japan, Americans have always suggested solutions quite unlike the one under which they live.”

October 31, 2017 0

John McCain Hits Another Home Run

By celmoreblog

“We have to fight. We have to fight against propaganda and crackpot conspiracy theories. We have to fight isolationism, protectionism, and nativism. We have to defeat those who would worsen our divisions. We have to remind our sons and daughters that we became the most powerful nation on earth by tearing down walls, not building them.”

October 24, 2017 0

It is Time to Pay Attention to the Republican Revolt Against Donald Trump

By celmoreblog

Liberals have good reasons to dislike Donald Trump;  conservatives have more.  Opposing this president is not about being a conservative or a liberal;  it is about being a good citizen.  Four men that have done far more to serve our country than Donald Trump agree:  Donald Trump is doing real damage to our country and it is time for ALL Americans to stand up to this danger.  

September 1, 2017 0

Trade, Jobs, and Politics: Why Do Americans Think The U.S. Is Losing a Game That It Is Actually Winning?

By celmoreblog

In the years since NAFTA, U.S. trade with its North American neighbors has more than tripled, growing more rapidly than U.S. trade with the rest of the world. Canada and Mexico are the two largest destinations for U.S. exports, accounting for more than a third of the total. Most estimates conclude that the deal had a modest but positive impact on U.S. GDP of less than 0.5 percent, or a total addition of up to $80 billion dollars to the U.S. economy upon full implementation, or several billion dollars of added growth per year.

August 22, 2017 0

“Trump backers’ alarming reliance on hoax and conspiracy theory websites, in 1 chart” by Aaron Blake (Washington Post)

By celmoreblog

“While we observe highly partisan and clickbait news sites on both sides of the partisan divide, especially on Facebook, on the right these sites received amplification and legitimation through an attention backbone that tied the most extreme conspiracy sites like Truthfeed, Infowars, through the likes of Gateway Pundit and Conservative Treehouse, to bridging sites like the Daily Caller and Breitbart that legitimated and normalized the paranoid style that came to typify the right-wing ecosystem in the 2016 election. This attention backbone relied heavily on social media.”

December 9, 2016 0

Bill O’Reilly and Syrian Refugees

By celmoreblog

The “cold hard truth” here is that the best explanation for American attitudes toward the Syrian refugees likely does not relate to anything that the Obama administration or the Syrian refugees have done. Rather, it is Americans’ consumption of such poor journalism that causes us to be so uninformed about our country and its laws.

November 4, 2016 0

Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump and the FBI Mess

By celmoreblog

However, a voter who believed that the integrity issue was not serious enough to prevent him or her for voting for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump should likely not change his or her mind now based on these news reports. There is no good reason to think that these reports are indications of any change in the investigation or new revelations about her conduct that would change how one perceives the issues or the candidates. Both candidates come with great risk. If one concluded before the past two weeks that Clinton was a safer choice than Trump, the event of the past two weeks should probably do nothing that alter that assessment.

October 14, 2016 1

Donald Trump is Not a Good Person, and Yes, He is MUCH Worse Than Hillary Clinton

By celmoreblog

But if you have read this far and you have really examined the information available and reflected upon it and you are still willing to walk into a voting booth and cast a ballot for Donald Trump to be the president of the United States, that act will ultimately say something about you and your character and your judgement and your ability to fulfill your responsibilities as a citizen of this country- and what it will say is not good.

September 21, 2016 0

A Vote for Trump is a Vote for Big Government

By celmoreblog

Trump’s commitment to expanding the size and power of the federal government would be remarkable even if he were a Democrat, a party which is associated with that approach.  However, it is particularly astonishing in the context of Republican and conservative critiques of the Obama administration and Tea Party critiques of previous Republican administrations.

May 28, 2016 1

“Men in Search of a Myth….”

By celmoreblog

“Yet, if a lack of transparency is the main argument against Clinton, Trump should certainly be held to the same standard.  If his campaign is primarily premised on the notion that he is an accomplished businessman and that this success qualifies him for the presidency, someone should at least expect him to document that he is, in fact, a successful businessman, something that he has never actually done.”