- Is California Failing Its Most Vulnerable Adults? December 11, 2018As she waited for her meal during a routine trip to a fast-food restaurant in Northern California’s Bay Area in July of last year, a woman with a developmental disability was lured away from her adult day care group. The staffer overseeing the group ordered food, but it wasn’t until after he ordered that he […]
- Have Republicans Given Up On Winning Black Voters? December 11, 2018George W. Bush was president when I first started covering national politics. He had come into office with barely any support from black voters. He won re-election with almost as little. But Bush still paid some heed to the interests of black Americans. When then-Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott praised the pro-segregation 1948 presidential campaign […]
- Politics Podcast: Trump’s Turbulent Week December 10, 2018The FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast crew tries to make sense of the recent turbulence in Trump world, including possible campaign finance violations and another staffing shake-up. The team also checks back in on potential election fraud in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District. You can listen to the episode by clicking the “play” button in the audio […]
- Why It Might Be Impossible To Overturn A Presidential Pardon December 10, 2018If the American president has a superpower, it might be the ability to grant pardons. With the stroke of a pen, the president can wipe away the consequences of a federal criminal conviction, without having to ask permission from Congress or prepare for a battle in the courts. In the past, presidents have used this […]
- Trump Is Only Popular In Rural Areas December 7, 2018Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup. Poll(s) of the week The 2018 midterm election confirmed America’s urban-rural divide; Democrats excelled in cities, Republicans dominated in the country and the suburbs were the tiebreaker that handed Democrats the House. Will the 2020 election play out the same way? This week, we got two polls of […]
- Crossing The Aisle Didn’t Save Republicans This Year December 7, 2018Over the years, members of Congress who broke ranks with their party have tended to find more electoral success — in other words, it can pay to be a maverick. But in 2018, this wasn’t necssarily the case. Many Republicans who were less loyal to their party lost their re-election bids in this year’s midterms. […]
- Trump Has Made U.S. Policy Much More Resistant To Immigration — Without The Wall December 6, 2018President Trump and congressional Democrats are fighting over how much the U.S. government should spend on Trump’s proposed border wall, risking another government shutdown because of a dispute over immigration policy. However those negotiations turn out, though, here’s the thing: The massive wall, which Trump has said would stretch 1,000 miles across the U.S.-Mexico border, […]
- How Much Was Incumbency Worth In 2018? December 6, 2018For decades, running as an incumbent was undoubtedly a huge advantage in electoral politics. As recently as 20 years ago, holding office added an average of 8 percentage points to a candidate’s margin. But in this century, experts say, the incumbency advantage has significantly diminished. Now the verdict is in for the 2018 election: According […]
- What If We Already Have The Mueller Report? December 5, 2018UPDATE (Dec. 7, 2018, 6:13 p.m.): Late Friday afternoon, prosecutors from the Southern District of New York filed a sentencing memo for Michael Cohen, President Trump’s former lawyer and “fixer,” recommending a “substantial” prison term of about four years, despite his cooperation with special counsel Robert Mueller. In a separate memo submitted last week, Cohen’s […]
- Are Lame-Duck Sessions Undemocratic? December 4, 2018Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): Today we’ve assembled a larger-than-usual crew to figure out just what is happening in Wisconsin and Michigan. In both states, lame-duck Republican state legislatures are trying to pass a number of bills that will limit the power […]
- Republicans, Don't Break Our Democracy December 11, 2018Tom Perez, CNNDemocrats won big in this year's midterm elections. We put hope on the ballot and voters across the country embraced our message, turning out in droves to elect the most diverse slate of candidates in history. It was a powerful repudiation of Donald Trump and the Republican politicians who march in lockstep behind […]
- Build the Wall--Do What We Said We'd Do December 11, 2018Reps. Jordan & Meadows, FOX NewsWe have three weeks to help him deliver on his biggest promise: securing the border and building the wall.
- Why Democrats Need Nancy Pelosi as Speaker December 11, 2018Jill Lawrence, USA TodayEverything that happens next year in the House amounts to a Democratic audition — and platform — for the 2020 presidential, Senate and House elections.
- McConnell's Making a Big Mistake by Refusing to Let 1st Step Pass December 11, 2018
- What's Next, Mrs. May? December 11, 2018
- The Net Closes on Donald Trump December 11, 2018
- Campaign Finance Case Against Trump Is Laughably Weak December 11, 2018
- Will the Leakers in the Flynn Case Escape Justice? December 11, 2018Julie Kelly, American GreatnessTwo years ago this month, the set-up of Lt. General Michael Flynn began. And now that Special Counsel Robert Mueller has recommended the lightest sentence possible for Flynn’s crime of lying to the FBI in 2017, Americans are reminded that the real criminals—top officials at our nation’s most trusted agencies—have yet to […]
- What Has the President Been 'Smocking'? December 11, 2018Eugene Robinson, Washington PostPresident Trump was up early Monday morning, tweeting falsely that investigators have found "No Smocking Gun" that proves he did anything wrong. He meant "smoking," of course. His vision must be clouded by the haze.
- From Russia, Russia, Russia to...Campaign Finance? December 11, 2018Byron York, Washington ExaminerBut despite various revelations in the Russia probe, the case for collusion remains as sketchy as ever.
- Trump's 'Obama Did It Too' Defense Does Not Hold Water December 11, 2018Richard Hasen, SlatePresident Donald Trump may never face a criminal penalty or impeachment proceedings for violating campaign finance laws in alleged conspiracy with his former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen.
- Why Trump Might Be Right About Interest Rates December 11, 2018Peter Eavis, New York TimesWhat if President Trump’s gut turns out to have been right and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases are holding back the United States economy?
- How Theresa May Blew It December 11, 2018Rich Lowry, New York PostShakespeare famously wrote of the “sceptered isle” of Britain acting as a moat “against the envy of less happier lands.” Lately, the less happier lands are winning in a rout.
- Protests Show Leading France Is an Impossible Job December 11, 2018Gideon Rachman, Financial TimesThe French contradiction of a demand for lower taxes and better public services will stay unresolved
- What the New Congress Can Learn From Aristotle December 11, 2018Peter Berkowitz, RealClearPoliticsThe swearing in of the 116th Congress next month returns divided government to Washington. A Democratic-controlled House coupled with a fortified Republican Senate majority is likely to exacerbate the rancor and vitriol that have suffused national politics since long before Donald Trump’s theatrical announcement in the summer of 2015 that he was running […]
John McCain was a leader of extraordinary character. This speech highlights some of the reasons why he should continue to command our respect and attention.
Young people should question their elders mainly because millennials are better able than older generations to distinguish facts from opinions.
Realistically, your chance of being killed by one of the law enforcement agents being sent to face the refugees is higher than the risk of being killed by a refugee.
The smartest thing to do is to detain all of the white nationalists and people associated with white nationalism, as well as people from regions with a high propensity for white nationalism immediately until we can establish a proper vetting process for determining which ones are safe.
“Trump and the Republicans in Washington don’t give a damn about anyone like me or anyone that doesn’t think like them. That’s why I’m running for Congress.”
Let’s hope we can find a way to stop lightning from striking people dead. But, I would much prefer that we find a way to stop people from getting cancer. That’s not being political. That is adopting a measured reaction to the real world. Isaac Newton would approve.
In 2016, Pew research suggested 47% of those in families with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 identified as Republican –more than the 46% of those with incomes over $150,000.
Trump discusses topics so that the people, like him, who don’t understand them at all, can also pretend to understand them.
“The America of John McCain has no need to be made great again because America was always great,” daughter Meghan McCain said, setting the tone for eulogies by Presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush.
“Three US presidents, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, and Barack Obama, were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize while serving in office. One, Jimmy Carter, was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for contributions after his presidency.”
“Trump Picked Fight With Vietnam Vets Over Who Better Understood What Agent Orange Was” By Eric Levitz
“One of the first things that Trump did as president — after more than a year of campaigning as a champion of veterans’ interests — was to name reality star Omarosa Manigault Newman as the White House point person for veterans’ issues.”
“Through your actions, you have embarrassed us in the eyes of our children, humiliated us on the world stage and, worst of all, divided us as a nation.”
“But according to internal State Department emails and a document obtained by Foreign Policy and Coda Story, a nonprofit crisis reporting website, the economic officials consulted on a draft of the rebuttal questioned the accuracy of the data the administration was citing.”
“In the face of a growing Russian threat to the interests of the United States at home and around the globe, Washington still lacks anything resembling a grand strategy to meet it. Trump’s Helsinki performance showed the world that a year and a half into his administration, he has yet even to start crafting an approach. “
“There is a reason why, when choosing their own constitutions, no other country has for long survived with a replica of the American model—and why when guiding the design of constitutions for others, as they did in post-war Germany and Japan, Americans have always suggested solutions quite unlike the one under which they live.”
“What isn’t theoretical are the higher costs for American consumers and companies Trump’s tariffs have imposed, or the retaliatory tariffs they have provoked.”
Calling a Republican a fiscal conservative is about the same as calling an elephant a petite mammal. If you do it, you’re either ignorant or a liar. Either way, Republicans are the party of fiscal recklessness and it has been this way now for over 40 years. The evidence is overwhelming and indisputable.
“Robinson struck down the stringent law, and ordered Kobach to take six additional hours of continuing legal education that “pertain to federal or Kansas civil rules of procedure or evidence.”
“But in the last few years, the number of refugees annually resettled by the U.S. has not consistently grown in step with a worldwide refugee population that has expanded nearly 50% since 2013, according to a Pew Research Center analysis.
Trump’s team is basically arguing that the president of the United States is not capable of committing a crime because the president is higher than any legal authority in the United States.
“At press time, residents of the only economically advanced nation in the world where roughly two mass shootings have occurred every month for the past eight years were referring to themselves and their situation as “helpless.”
Kobach was held in contempt of court last year for misleading the court about the contents of documents he was photographed taking into a November meeting with then President-elect Donald Trump.
“I certainly have no reason to disbelieve any of them,” Ivey said. “The timing is a little curious. But at the same time, I have no reason to disbelieve them.”
“We have to fight. We have to fight against propaganda and crackpot conspiracy theories. We have to fight isolationism, protectionism, and nativism. We have to defeat those who would worsen our divisions. We have to remind our sons and daughters that we became the most powerful nation on earth by tearing down walls, not building them.”
“Trumpy Bear goes many places: You can hang him from a flag pole or proudly display him on your motorcycle, dinner table, or golf cart, where he will cast his magical glow of old-white-guy powers on your golf game. He comes with a certificate of authenticity. Why?”
Liberals have good reasons to dislike Donald Trump; conservatives have more. Opposing this president is not about being a conservative or a liberal; it is about being a good citizen. Four men that have done far more to serve our country than Donald Trump agree: Donald Trump is doing real damage to our country and it is time for ALL Americans to stand up to this danger.
He says, “You’re spittin’ in the face of vets who fought for us you bastards,”
Unless you’re a POW who’s tortured and battered, ‘Cause to him, you’re zeros, ‘Cause he don’t like his war heroes captured.
“Mr. Trump poses such an acute risk, the senator said, that a coterie of senior administration officials must protect him from his own instincts. “I know for a fact that every single day at the White House, it’s a situation of trying to contain him,” Mr. Corker said in a telephone interview.”
“Given the national controversy over the #Takeaknee movement and “the Donald’s” reaction to it, this seems like a good time to remind all Americans what the Pledge of Allegiance might look like in an idealized version of Trumpland.”
“Decertifying could have an outcome typical of Mr. Trump’s presidency. Mr. Trump would feel good about honouring a pledge; an achievement of Mr. Obama’s would be threatened; and America’s reputation overseas would be further diminished.”
“Those who feel like they can intimidate our fellow citizens to take out their anger don’t represent the best of America, they represent the worst of humankind, and they should be ashamed of that kind of behavior.” -George W. Bush, September 17, 2001
Trade, Jobs, and Politics: Why Do Americans Think The U.S. Is Losing a Game That It Is Actually Winning?
In the years since NAFTA, U.S. trade with its North American neighbors has more than tripled, growing more rapidly than U.S. trade with the rest of the world. Canada and Mexico are the two largest destinations for U.S. exports, accounting for more than a third of the total. Most estimates conclude that the deal had a modest but positive impact on U.S. GDP of less than 0.5 percent, or a total addition of up to $80 billion dollars to the U.S. economy upon full implementation, or several billion dollars of added growth per year.
“I wish you bad luck — again, from time to time — so that you will be conscious of the role of chance in life,” Roberts said. “And understand that your success is not completely deserved, and that the failure of others is not completely deserved, either.”
If you think there is actually a real debate about the answer to this question, you should probably spend a little bit more time studying economics.
“It’s hypocrisy to call yourself a Christian and chase away a refugee or someone seeking help, someone who is hungry or thirsty, toss out someone who is in need of my help. If I say I am Christian, but do these things, I’m a hypocrite.” -Pope Francis
The “cold hard truth” here is that the best explanation for American attitudes toward the Syrian refugees likely does not relate to anything that the Obama administration or the Syrian refugees have done. Rather, it is Americans’ consumption of such poor journalism that causes us to be so uninformed about our country and its laws.
Restricting those alternatives, whether through well-intentioned progressive “economic localism” or the darker, reactionary forces of “economic nationalism,” harms people, and often those who can ill-afford worsening poverty.
During Pope Francis’s Jubilee Year of Mercy, the people of the United States demonstrated why a call for mercy was needed. Let’s hope we can do better next year.
“Old, white, and uneducated is not the future of this country. A vote for Trump is not a vote for the future. It is a vote for a past that never really existed. To the extent that it did, we should be seeking to leave these elements behind- not seeking to restore them. “
However, a voter who believed that the integrity issue was not serious enough to prevent him or her for voting for Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump should likely not change his or her mind now based on these news reports. There is no good reason to think that these reports are indications of any change in the investigation or new revelations about her conduct that would change how one perceives the issues or the candidates. Both candidates come with great risk. If one concluded before the past two weeks that Clinton was a safer choice than Trump, the event of the past two weeks should probably do nothing that alter that assessment.
“We will either look back on this in 20 years and laugh at the absurdity of what Trump has been proposing or someone else will look back in 200 years at the ruins of a crumbled civilization and wonder how we could have inflicted such damage upon ourselves.”
“We are mainly concerned with the Republican Party’s nominee, Donald J. Trump, who might be the most ostentatiously unqualified major-party candidate in the 227-year history of the American presidency.”
But if you have read this far and you have really examined the information available and reflected upon it and you are still willing to walk into a voting booth and cast a ballot for Donald Trump to be the president of the United States, that act will ultimately say something about you and your character and your judgement and your ability to fulfill your responsibilities as a citizen of this country- and what it will say is not good.
” You should call more attention to your bankruptcies, lawsuits, tax fraud, and other ways in which you have gamed the system for your own financial advantage.”
Trump’s commitment to expanding the size and power of the federal government would be remarkable even if he were a Democrat, a party which is associated with that approach. However, it is particularly astonishing in the context of Republican and conservative critiques of the Obama administration and Tea Party critiques of previous Republican administrations.
Considering that managing our country’s foreign policy is, by constitutional design and practical necessity, the most important task of the modern US president, having a person with such little knowledge and competence in this area is deeply troubling.
“Yet, if a lack of transparency is the main argument against Clinton, Trump should certainly be held to the same standard. If his campaign is primarily premised on the notion that he is an accomplished businessman and that this success qualifies him for the presidency, someone should at least expect him to document that he is, in fact, a successful businessman, something that he has never actually done.”
For this reason, maps are no more transparent than a Giotto portrait or Greek pottery. The work of human intelligence, they necessarily obscure as much as they reveal, and offer only opacity when we hope for insight. This calls into question our assumption, both as their makers and viewers, that we control maps.
“The Gospel tells us constantly to risk a face-to-face encounter with others, with their physical presence which challenges us, with their pain and their pleas, with their joy which infects us in our close and continuous interaction.”
“The idea that she knows more than 97% of scientists is offensive. It’s dangerous,” Kimmel said. “No matter what Sarah Palin and these geniuses she surrounds herself with try to tell you, climate change is not a liberal-versus-conservative thing. But the people who profit from ignoring it want you to believe it is.”
“Norm Ornstein, the Political Scientist That Predicted the Rise of Donald Trump” by Andrew Prokop (Vox)
“AN ANTI-ESTABLISHMENT POPULIST BASE DRIVEN BY IDENTITY POLITICS AND CULTURE AND A VISCERAL REACTION AGAINST LEADERS OF ALL SORTS”