RSS Five Thirty Eight (Politics)

  • Economists Are Bad At Predicting Recessions August 21, 2019
    Every president’s election-year nightmare — a recession — is suddenly looming over the 2020 race. In a survey released earlier this week by the National Association of Business Economics, 38 percent of economists predicted that the country will slip into an economic downturn next year, and another recent poll of economists put the chances of […]
  • Who’s Running The Best Campaign Ads? August 21, 2019
    Welcome to FiveThirtyEight’s weekly politics chat. The transcript below has been lightly edited. sarahf (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): On Tuesday, Joe Biden launched his campaign’s first television ad of the 2020 cycle, leaning into his time spent as Barack Obama’s vice president and his performance in head-to-head polls against President Trump. And according to an […]
  • Who Said It: Political Pundits Or Sports Commentators? August 20, 2019
    Politics is more complicated than a quarterback’s playbook, and it can be tough to break it down for people who aren’t following the day-to-day drama. So, like a golfer aiming for a hole-in-one, political pundits are always searching for the perfect metaphor. When they want to explain all that inside baseball, they often turn to […]
  • GOP Leaders Really Want Steve King Gone. Could He Lose In 2020? August 20, 2019
    Rep. Steve King is no stranger to controversy. The Republican congressman’s recent comments about rape and incest have Republican leaders calling for his ouster, and this is just the latest entry on King’s laundry list of insensitive and racist statements. Nevertheless, King says he’s running for reelection in 2020. But this could be the end […]
  • Could Trump Drive Young White Evangelicals Away From The GOP? August 20, 2019
    A central message of President Trump’s insurgent candidacy in 2016 boiled down to this: Millions of Americans are losers — economically, culturally and even demographically. Perhaps no group needed less convincing of this proposition than white evangelical Christians, who have long felt embattled. “Make America Great Again” was the perfect slogan for Americans who had […]
  • Politics Podcast: What’s Driving Elizabeth Warren’s Comeback? August 19, 2019
    Sen. Elizabeth Warren overtook Sen. Bernie Sanders to claim second place in the Real Clear Politics average of national primary polls, a position she’s had for a little over a week now. It’s the first time she’s claimed that spot, apart from a one-day blip back in July. It was just a handful of months […]
  • Elizabeth Warren Is Attracting More Supporters And More Media Attention August 19, 2019
    Of all the 2020 Democratic candidates, Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s campaign has stood out for making incremental but relatively steady gains. And along with a rise in her polling numbers, Warren has been getting more media attention. Data from the TV News Archive shows that last week Warren was mentioned more often on cable news than […]
  • Democratic Candidates Answer Yes-Or-No Questions About Foreign Policy August 19, 2019
    Former President Barack Obama substantially increased U.S. troops in Afghanistan early in his tenure, gave military support to rebels to help them depose the leader of Libya and personally ordered drone strikes to kill alleged terrorists in a number of countries. Liberal Democrats thought he was too hawkish, while foreign policy experts in Washington, particularly […]
  • There Are 5 Governors Being Targeted For Recalls August 19, 2019
    Recall elections were once a rarely used, “break glass in case of emergency” tool to remove politicians from office. But now, several factors have conspired to make this the most active decade for recall elections in U.S. history — and there may be more to come in the next several months. Out of 19 states […]
  • Can You Tell Sports Commentary From Political Punditry? We Couldn’t. August 19, 2019
    The game was supposed to be simple: I read a quote, you tell me if the quote was from either a sports broadcast or a political discussion about the first two 2020 Democratic debates. Almost every staff member I pitched it to here at FiveThirtyEight was confident they would ace it. “I’m gonna get all […]

RSS Real Clear Politics

  • Mueller Crushed Their Dreams, So Dems Pivot to Race August 21, 2019
    With their hopes for dumping Donald Trump dashed by Robert Mueller, Democrats turn to race.
  • Rudderless Trump Administration Is Drifting Toward Disaster August 21, 2019
    August is generally a dull month in politics unless a presidential election is looming. Congress is in recess and millions of checked-out Americans are criss-crossing the country in planes and automobiles (not so much trains in the U.S.), desperately seeking respite from their workaday lives.
  • What We Need to Know From IG Report on Russia Probe August 21, 2019
    There will be much to learn in Inspector General Michael Horowitz's upcoming report on the Trump-Russia investigation, but most of it will likely boil down to just two questions. One, how much did the Obama Justice Department spy on the Trump campaign? And two, was it justified?
  • Biden's Lead Confirms 2020 as a Battle for America's Soul August 21, 2019
    Joe Biden's standing in a new CNN poll confirms that he remains very popular among core Democratic party constituencies, particularly African Americans and older Americans, and that he has tapped into the most powerful message for Democrats: This race is about a battle for the soul of our country -- America can't survive another four […]
  • Progressive 2020 Dems Renounce Their Former Selves August 21, 2019
    Not long ago, the current presidential contenders opposed open borders, sanctuary cities, and federal funding for abortion. Now they can't move left far and fast enough.
  • The Summer of Elizabeth Warren August 21, 2019
    GQ's Julie Ioffe joins talks with the surging senator about Hillary's trailblazing, Trump's tactics, and Warren's biggest pitch of all: herself.
  • Warren Is the Real Threat to Thriving Economy August 21, 2019
    In a recent online essay for Medium titled "The Coming Economic Crash - And How to Stop It," Democratic presidential hopeful Sen. Elizabeth Warren warns of an imminent "economic downturn." As one warning sign, Warren says Americans are saddled with excessive household debt due to a "generation of stagnant wages and rising costs." Her argument […]
  • In a Case of Projection, GOP Suspects Economic Sabotage August 21, 2019
    Trump and his allies assume Democrats are trying to induce a recession. It's classic projection.
  • Donald Trump Is Bad for the Jews August 21, 2019
    Ever the narcissist, Trump couldn't even leave it at the normal anti-Semitic trope.
  • Criticism of Israel Is Not Anti-Semitism; Anti-Zionism Is August 21, 2019
    Imagine a group of people who work to destroy Italy because, they claim, Italy's origins are illegitimate. Imagine further that these people maintain that of all the countries in the world, onlyItaly is illegitimate. And then imagine that these people vigorously deny they are in any way anti-Italian. Would you believe them? Or would you […]
  • The Vast Conspiracy Behind Jeffrey Epstein's Death August 21, 2019
    No, Epstein was not killed by a cabal of powerful men who wanted to silence him. But his death was part of a larger plot: the US prison system.
  • China Paying Attention to Trump's Greenland Idea August 21, 2019
    The moment The Wall Street Journal article appeared revealing President Trump was mulling over the idea of the United States buying Greenland, the autonomous Danish territory in the Atlantic, ankle-biters began to mock the idea.
  • DNC Appears to Be Rigging Dem Primary Again in 2020 August 21, 2019
    Tulsi Gabbard is on the verge of being excluded from the next Democratic presidential debate on the basis of criteria that appear increasingly absurd.
  • Do Democrats Need a Backup Plan? August 21, 2019
    Former first lady Michelle Obamahas disavowed any interest in running for president. But she would have plenty of assets if she did run, Rothenberg writes.
  • Mark Halperin and the Art of the #MeToo U-Turn August 21, 2019
    Many of the pundits who spoke to disgraced NBC journalist Mark Halperin were actively tweeting their support of #TimesUp and #MeToo. What changed?

RSS The Economist- United States